Whatever the case may be, President Biden made the historic announcement on Sunday that he will not seek reelection. Instead, he endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris.
Here are six insights to consider:
1st – Biden’s decision was influenced by poll results and pressure from Democrats and donors.
This is unprecedented since Lyndon B. Johnson’s decision not to run in 1968, which he announced in March, not July. Like Biden, LBJ faced health concerns and unpopularity due to the Vietnam War.
All politicians aspire to be at the top, but numbers — whether polls or finances — can drive decisions. Both polls and funding pressures pushed Biden to reconsider. Financial support was dwindling, and he was losing ground in swing states following his poor performance in the June 27 debate.
In an ABC interview, Biden suggested that only divine intervention, adverse polls, or possibly persuasion from figures like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, and Jim Clyburn could make him step aside.
Pelosi, a shrewd political strategist, seemed to spearhead this movement. She closely monitors polls and listens to swing-state Democrats who saw declining support in their areas. Eventually, Biden moved from denial to acceptance.
2nd – Democrats now have renewed energy and financial support.
The last three and a half weeks were among the worst for any presidential campaign — from the debate to Trump’s convention and Biden contracting COVID-19.
However, Biden’s announcement has reinvigorated the Democrats. It doesn’t guarantee a win, but it has injected much-needed enthusiasm and financial support. After Biden’s withdrawal, Democrats raised $46.7 million through ActBlue by 9 p.m. ET, the largest single-day donation since the 2020 election.
The campaign has been reset, and Republicans haven’t yet solidified their strategy against Harris.
3rd – This changes the race’s narrative.
The Trump campaign, conservative media, and Republicans have targeted Biden and his family for years, criticizing his age, competence, and alleged corruption.
With Harris likely as the Democratic nominee, Republicans face a different opponent: a younger (Harris is 59), former prosecutor, and potentially the first female, Black, and Asian American president.
This shift alters the dynamics, especially with Harris being a Black woman running against two white men, presenting challenges for Republican rhetoric.
Democrats, often on the defensive, now have an opportunity to challenge the notion of an elderly president.
4th – Harris is likely the Democratic nominee, but she has much to prove.
To challenge Harris at the convention, a candidate needs at least 300 delegate signatures. With Biden holding around 3,900 delegates, it’s possible but challenging to find a contender.
Many potential Biden replacements, such as Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and Pete Buttigieg, have endorsed Harris.
Harris, however, must prove herself. Previous polls showing her on par with Biden against Trump are now irrelevant. As the likely nominee, she will face increased scrutiny.
Harris’s strengths include her youth and ability to energize key demographics like Black and younger voters. She has also found her voice on issues like abortion rights.
However, Harris struggled as a candidate in 2019 and faced criticism from both sides. She has reportedly improved since then.
Jamal Simmons, her former communications director, believes she is now a stronger candidate with favorable positions on key issues.
This campaign will be intense, and Harris must demonstrate her capabilities and reassure Democrats before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next month.
5th – Harris’ VP pick could bring geographic or ideological balance.
If Harris is the nominee, she has various VP choices that could reshape the electoral map.
Potential picks include white, male moderates like Shapiro, Roy Cooper, Andy Beshear, and Mark Kelly, as well as Whitmer.
Shapiro, 51, is popular and competent, from swing-state Pennsylvania. Trump’s campaign targets Pennsylvania, making it crucial for Democrats.
Cooper, 67, is also from a swing state, though less competitive for Democrats. Beshear, 46, is well-regarded but from a Republican state. Kelly, 60, is from a swing state and has separated himself from Biden on border policy.
Whitmer would aid in Michigan but would create an all-female ticket, a first for a major party.
6th – This decision will be a defining moment in Biden’s legacy.
Biden has been in public life since winning a Senate seat in 1972 at 29 years old, turning 30 just after the election.
This decision marks a significant moment in his long career, which includes seven Senate terms, a vice presidency, and two prior presidential runs.
Defeating Trump in 2020, Biden is credited with preserving democracy. However, recognizing a narrowing or nonexistent path forward, Biden’s concession is seen by many Democrats as patriotic and selfless, contrasting with Trump’s approach.
Historian Jon Meacham, who has assisted Biden with speeches, emphasized the rarity and selflessness of such a decision, highlighting a lesson in prioritizing principle over power.